While the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, the Bitcoin price (BTC) is predicted to rise rapidly to $ 64,000. Cryptocurrency and digital asset fund Capriole Investments stated in its report dated 17 September that the BTC price is at a critical turning point.
Capriole stated that it would not be surprising for Bitcoin to reach this level in the fourth quarter, taking advantage of macroeconomic developments. BTC/USD, which has been almost stable recently, may move if the Fed cuts interest rates at its meeting on 18 September.
‘It marks the beginning of a new dovish approach, with the Fed slowly stepping back from its hawkish policies and interest rates showing a significant change for the first time since late 2021,’ the report said. ‘This coincides with Bitcoin falling from $ 60,000 to $ 15,500 during the hawkish period. Now we are switching to the opposite.’
‘Considering the current situation's reaction to $ 58,000 and the Fed's great effectiveness, it would not surprise us to expect a rapid upward break of this level if there are no negative surprises from Chairman Powell.’
Is on-chain data misleading?
Bitcoin's on-chain supply data reflects a bearish trend. Experts stated that new developments such as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US have negatively affected the data. According to Charles Edwards, events such as ETF listings in 2024 and Mt. Gox returns in 2024 led to a redistribution of capital. These movements cause on-chain data to not reflect reality.
Further investigations revealed that data covering supply ownership by non-moving period is unreliable.
‘Over the last six months, on-chain data has been heavily manipulated and there has been no net significant organic long-term owner selling. This has resulted in many metrics remaining at extremely low levels compared to previous cycle peaks.’
Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, maintained his hope for a rally based on the Fed interest rate cuts as well as Bitcoin's past last quarter performances:
‘What will the next period bring? We are two weeks away from the last quarter, increased liquidity inflows to risk assets are expected in this process, and with a dovish Fed policy, this will create very favourable conditions for Bitcoin.’